Can the Middle East open the door to affordable clean hydrogen?

Image: Ghadir Shaar

A report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has suggested affordable green hydrogen could already be obtainable, based on the record-breaking low prices for solar negotiated in the Middle East.

Solar electricity tariffs of $0.0157, $0.0135 and $0.0104 per kilowatt-hour agreed in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, respectively, in the last 18 months, would enable renewables-powered hydrogen to be produced for as little as $1.62 per kilogram, according to IRENA's Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2020 report.

The Abu Dhabi-based international body made its calculations – all of which are in U.S. dollars – based on the $0.0104 solar power tariff agreed in Saudi Arabia in April, with green hydrogen generation being modeled at the Dumat al Jandal site in the kingdom which boasts strong solar and wind power resources. With the site already hosting a wind farm, IRENA modeled a hydrogen plant which would also harness solar and be connected to the grid. The report suggested lack of a grid connection would raise the renewable hydrogen cost to $1.74/kg, which still compares favorably to the current $1.45-2.40/kg price of hydrogen production powered by natural gas and equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS) tech.

Further extrapolating the costs, the study estimated a fall in hydrogen electrolyzer costs, from $750 per kilowatt of capacity to $350, would enable renewable hydrogen production for $1.16/kg. Raising electrolyzer efficiency to 72.5% and extending stack lifetime from 15 to 17.5 on top of that, IRENA said, could take green hydrogen below the prized $1/kg point.

With this year's renewables price report explaining how the three tariffs secured in the Middle East since January 2020 can be regarded as viable without any hidden caveats or subsidy, the authors of the study stated: “low-cost renewable hydrogen may already be in reach.”

The document fleshed out how up to 800 GW of coal-fired power generation capacity worldwide could already be replaced by newly-built renewable energy facilities as solar and wind prices have dipped under the cost of running legacy fossil fuel plants in many markets. That estimate included a $5/MWh cost of integrating renewables into the electric grid and IRENA said, with around 40% of that overpriced capacity – and 37% of actual generation – based in Bulgaria, Germany, India and the United States, decommissioning could save around $32 billion per year in energy costs. Making the switch would also eliminate three gigatons of carbon emissions – 20% of what IRENA estimates is needed to keep global heating to a maximum 1.5 degrees Celsius this century.

The data

The latest edition of the report is based on data from around 20,000 renewables generation facilities worldwide which account for 1.9 TW of generation capacity, and on clean energy auction prices and power purchase agreements which add up to 582 GW of capacity. All the figures in the study exclude any form of subsidy and the authors point out, adding CCS to the world's overpriced coal plants would merely drive up their costs further.

IRENA has estimated all of Bulgaria and Germany‘s coal plants will this year cost electricity bill payers more than new renewables facilities would, based on a European carbon emissions price of €50 per ton. Even without an emissions trading scheme in the U.S. and India, the picture is similar, with 77-91% of American coal plants and 87-91% of Indian facilities also overpriced.

That conclusion is based on an estimated levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for solar power in India this year of $0.033/kWh, down from $0.038 last year; and of $0.031 in the States this year, although the report's authors note the solar module price has picked up between 1% and 9% in the first quarter of this year, thanks to shortages of raw materials such as polysilicon.

With the global LCOE of solar having fallen 7% from 2019 to last year, from $0.061 to $0.057/kWh, India led the world for low-price PV last year, with an average LCOE of $0.038/kWh for utility scale generation, ahead of China, with $0.044, and Spain, with $0.046. The authors noted Turkey also rapidly reduced average solar tariffs, to $0.052 last year, and Australia posted an average $0.057.

That translated into average solar project development costs of $596 per kilowatt installed in India, the world's lowest figure and down 8% from Indian costs in 2019. Solar projects in Vietnam came in to $949/kW and were only $796/kW in Spain last year, the report added. At the other end of the scale, projects in Russia cost $1,889/kW and, in Japan, $1,832, with those two countries exceptional among the 19 markets studied as the cost differences between areas from Canada (at $1,275/kW) down to India, were more evenly distributed.

Auction results posted last year, for projects expected to be commissioned this year and next, prompted IRENA to estimate the global average solar power price will fall to $0.039/kWh this year before rising slightly to $0.04 next year, which would still be a 30% fall on this year's figure and 27% less than the LCOE to be expected from new-build coal plants. With the predictions based on 18.8 GW of renewables capacity expected this year and 26.7 GW due in 2022, the study estimated 74% of the clean energy facilities expected this year and next will be cheaper than new fossil fuel generation sites.

Cheaper

Renewables are already making real headway, of course, with IRENA calculating 45.5 GW of the solar added last year was among the 62% of the 162 GW of clean energy facilities which were installed more cheaply than new-build coal plants.

Digging into the solar statistics, the report said mainstream solar panel costs in December ranged from $0.19 to $0.40 per Watt, for an average price of $0.27, with thin-film products averaging $0.28/W.

Operations and maintenance costs came in at an average of $17.80/kW last year in OECD countries and $9 elsewhere, in a year which also saw non-panel, balance-of-system equipment costs account for 65% of total project expense.

For residential solar arrays, average system prices in the 19 markets studied by IRENA ranged from $658/kW in India to $4,236 in California, for LCOE figures from $0.055/kWh in India to $0.236 in the U.K. For commercial systems, India was again the cheapest place to invest last year, at an average $651/kW, but a business in California would have to find $2,974/kW. Those system costs translated into LCOE numbers ranging between $0.055 in India and $0.19 in Massachusetts.

This article originally appeared on pv-magazine-usa.com, and has been republished with permission by pv magazine (www.pv-magazine.com and www.pv-magazine-usa.com).

Image: Siemens

Within Florida Power & Light’s (FPL) recently-filed four-year rate request with the Florida Public Service Commission is a commitment to “investments to build a more sustainable energy future.”

The pledge in the regulatory filing includes the utility’s “30-by-30” plan to install 30 million solar panels in Florida by 2030, as well as plans to build what the utility said would be the world’s largest integrated solar-powered battery and a green hydrogen pilot project.

The battery system is the Manatee Energy Storage Center, a 409 MW behemoth that could begin serving customers in late 2021. FPL’s Gulf Power unit said on Feb. 25 that it had begun construction on the project. The project is expected to help speed the retirement of aging natural gas units at a nearby power plant.

The green hydrogen pilot project was first announced by NextEra Energy, FPL’s parent company, in July 2020.

NextEra plans to invest $65 million into the pilot, which will use power from otherwise curtailed solar energy to produce green hydrogen via a 20 MW electrolysis system.

It’s worth noting that NextEra ranks as one of the nation’s largest solar and wind developers. So, although a 20 MW pilot may not initially move the needle toot much, NextEra’s vast wind and solar also comes with a lot of curtailed renewable generation. If the pilot proves successful and scalable, the company could look toward a serious buildout of more hydrogen producing facilities that could replace fossil fuels.

For now, the green hydrogen produced as part of the pilot would replace some of the natural gas combusted at FPL’s 1.75 GW Okeechobee power plant. Rather than build a new hydrogen plant, FPL is retrofitting an existing plant to accommodate the fuel source.

This article originally appeared on pv-magazine-usa.com, and has been republished with permission by pv magazine (www.pv-magazine.com and www.pv-magazine-usa.com).

The proposed algorithm was validated on a hybrid system for application in both off-grid and on-grid scenarios.

Image: Frerk Meyer/Flickr

Researchers from Saudi Arabia's Qassim University and the Minia University, and the Aswan University in Egypt, have developed a new model to integrate PV, wind, and hydrogen generation in a hybrid system for application in both off-grid and on-grid scenarios.

The model is based on a metaheuristic algorithm called Improved Artificial Ecosystem Optimization (IAEO), which the scientists claim is an improved version of the conventional Artificial Ecosystem Optimization (AEO) algorithm. The latter is a nature-inspired algorithm known for mimicking three typical behaviors of living organisms, such as production, consumption, and decomposition.

The producers are any kind of green plant and consumers are animals that cannot make their food and, therefore, obtain it from a producer or other consumers. Decomposers are agents that feed on both producers, in the form of dead plants, and consumers, in the form of waste from living organisms. In an AEO algorithm, there is only one decomposer and one producer, and the other individuals are considered consumers.

The AEO works according to these three phases and is commonly used to optimize the flow of energy in an ecosystem on the earth. “The ecosystem can be expressed as a group of living organisms [which] live in a certain space, and the ecosystem describes the relations between them,” the researchers said, adding that IAEO is mainly intended at improving the consumption phase.

The proposed energy system consists of PV and wind power generation, a water electrolyzer, a tank of hydrogen gas, a fuel cell, and an inverter that brings the generated electricity to final consumers. “The hybrid system is suggested to be located in [the] Ataka region, [in the] Suez gulf (latitude 30.0, longitude 32.5), Egypt, and the whole lifetime of the suggested case study is 25 years,” the scientists specified.

In this configuration, which the academics have assessed for both off-grid and grid-connected projects, wind and solar plants are used to power the electrolyzer that produces hydrogen, which is then stored in the tank and used to produce electricity through the fuel cell. The inverter receives electricity from the fuel cell and also surplus power from the wind and solar facilities. “When the level of hydrogen in the tank becomes below the lowest allowable level, the shortage in the electrical energy required to store the hydrogen gas in the tank is dispatched from the national grid,” they further explained.

Both the IAEO and conventional AEO algorithms were applied for generating the optimal design for the system. “In the case of the isolated configuration, when the electrical power produced from PV and wind resources is higher than the load needs plus the rated power of the electrolyzer, a dummy load is used for generation-demand balance,” the Saudi-Egyptian group stated.

The IAEO algorithm was validated in six different configurations of the proposed hybrid system and, according to the research team, has provided better results not only compared to the AEO, but also to other kinds of algorithms. “The proposed IAEO algorithm provides fast convergence characteristics, the best minimum values of the objective function, and minimum cost of energy,” it concluded. “Based on the optimal configuration of the hybrid systems, it is found that the fuel cell system has the highest contribution to the net present cost.”

This article originally appeared on pv-magazine-usa.com, and has been republished with permission by pv magazine (www.pv-magazine.com and www.pv-magazine-usa.com).

The model was presented in the paper An improved artificial ecosystem optimization algorithm for optimal configuration of a hybrid PV/WT/FC energy system, published in the Alexandria Engineering Journal.

The world already has a nascent hydrogen economy, according to IEEFA.

Image: Roy Luck/Flickr

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) estimates there are 50 green hydrogen projects under development worldwide. Those projects, have a planned annual production capacity of 4 million tons of hydrogen and a total renewable power capacity of 50 GW, according to the Ohio-based thinktank, with their combined capital cost estimated at $75 billion.

In its Asia, Australia and Europe Leading Emerging Green Hydrogen Economy, but Project Delays Likely study, IEEFA said the projects announced represent an embryonic global green hydrogen economy.

“Most of these 50 projects are at an early stage, with just 14 having started construction and 34 at a study or memorandum-of-understanding stage,” the report noted. “However, many of the 50 newly-announced green hydrogen projects could face delays due to uncertain financing, cumbersome joint venture structures and unfavorable seaborne-trade economics.”

The study stated the majority of the projects announced will begin commercial operation in the middle of the decade, with large scale facilities starting up in 2022-23 and 2025-26.

The report’s authors said the hydrogen strategies of China, Japan and South Korea appear to prioritize hydrogen generated using natural gas – designated grey hydrogen, or blue if facilities are intended to feature carbon capture technology – rather than ‘green’ hydrogen generated using renewable energy. IEEFA described the €430 billion ($507 billion) hydrogen strategy of the European Union as the the most ambitious and purposeful energy transition policy to date.

“The EU’s hydrogen capex [capital expenditure] commitment far outweighs the commitment from Korea and Japan, reflecting the EU’s ambition to remodel its energy system and vertically integrate the hydrogen value chain with wind and solar power, electrolysis, distribution and applications,” stated the report.

Annual green hydrogen demand could reach 8.7 million tonnes by 2030, according to the IEEFA study, prompting a big supply shortfall given the current capacity of the project pipeline.

The report lists all publicized projects, including five facilities announced in the last two months – an 85 MW Nikola Motor Company plant in the U.S.; a 4 GW facility in Saudi Arabia planned by Air Products, Acwa Power and Neom; a 20 MW electrolyser being developed by U.S. energy company NextEra; a 100 MW solar park, storage facility and hydrogen production site in Puertollano, central Spain, by Iberdrola; and a 30 MW electrolyzer project by German consortium WestKüste100.

“There remains ample room for more hydrogen projects to meet global demand and further policy support will be necessary to grow this nascent industry,” added the report’s authors.

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Early this year Adani announced his company’s goal to become the world’s largest solar power company by 2025 and the largest renewable power company by 2030.

Image: Life tech/Flickr

Covid-19 presents an opportunity to pause, rethink, and design a new and faster transition to a cleaner energy future, said Adani Group chairman Gautam Adani recently in his LinkedIn post.

“The [clean energy] transition could lead to investment opportunities of US$ 19 trillion in solar, wind, battery storage, green Hydrogen, carbon management and energy efficiency by 2050, making it one of the largest global industries”—Adani quoted a recent forecast by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

“Employment in the clean energy sector, currently at 12 million in 2020, could quadruple by 2050, while jobs in energy efficiency and system flexibility could grow by another 40 million.”

Adani believes India, in particular, is well-positioned to benefit from the transition as it is naturally endowed with very high levels of solar resources, and the long coastline makes an attractive proposition for wind power.

Falling solar prices in favour

With technology driving prices down, renewables would supplement fossil fuels in the short term and emerge as the favoured option in the long term.

Adani quoted an MIT research paper to share that the price of solar modules has dropped 99% over the past 40 years. Going by the trend, he expects prices to drop by an additional 99% over the next 40 years – probably reducing the marginal cost of electricity to zero.

“Such a reduction, in turn, will mean the coexistence of two business models – one based on fossil fuels and the other driven by renewables – both supplementing each other in the near future but the pendulum swinging decidedly in favour of renewables in the long-term,” he wrote.

Adani said many of the [power] system operators in Europe, faced with falling [electricity] demand, are learning to manage grids at a remarkably high level of renewables in the energy mix, often up to 70%.

“While the generation balance may swing back as [electricity] demand increases, the crisis has provided insights to operators on keeping the grid stable with high levels of renewable penetration. Post Covid-19, this may be the new norm,” he said.

Hydrogen storage, a potential game changer

With increasing investor confidence in solar and wind, their integration with various storage technologies will further accelerate the energy transition, said Adani, highlighting hydrogen as the predominant storage technology on the horizon.

“With the prospect of the future marginal cost of renewable energy dropping precipitously, green Hydrogen produced by the splitting water could be the game-changer.

“This Hydrogen could use much of the existing gas pipeline network for distribution, be blended with natural gas and be a green feedstock for the chemical industry. Add to this the fact that the energy density of a kilogram of Hydrogen is almost three times that of gasoline, and you have a momentum that would be near impossible to stop as Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle prices come down,” he said.

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This article originally appeared on pv-magazine-india.com, and has been republished with permission by pv magazine (www.pv-magazine.com and www.pv-magazine-india.com.)

The "Choose Renewable Hydrogen" initiative, led by the employers Solar Power Europe and WindEurope and currently formed by Akuo Energy, BayWa re, EDP, Enel, Iberdrola, MHI Vestas, Solar Power Europe, Ørsted, Vestas and Wind Europe, remitted this Monday a letter to the vice-president of the European Commission, Frans Timmermans asking the European Commission to bet on the "most efficient, sustainable and profitable" ways to decarbonise the economy.

Among the correct decisions for the next integration of Europe's energy system, the importance of green hydrogen stands out, which will play "a key role as the most profitable and sustainable solution for total decarbonisation".

In that sense, direct electrification is pointed out to be the main means to decarbonize heating and road transport, but there are other difficult sectors to eliminate, such as heavy industry, long-distance road transport, aviation and transport. maritime, where direct electrification is insufficient. Here, renewable hydrogen will play a key role as the most cost-effective and sustainable solution for complete decarbonization.

Clean hydrogen has been one of the topics highlighted in the EU's ecological recovery plans, which will be announced this Wednesday: according to the draft published by the portal specialized in European affairs EurActiv, there will be 1.3 billion for R + D + i and another 10 billion co-financing in the next decade , to minimize the risk of large projects, as well as a “commitment” to reach 1 million tons of this gas.

For its part, Iberdrola announced in mid-March that it will build one of the largest green hydrogen plants in Europe in Puertollano , with an investment of 150 million euros.

This article originally appeared on pv-magazine.es and has been republished with permission by pv magazine (www.pv-magazine.com and www.pv-magazine.es).

Renewable energy makes sense of hydrogen.

Image: Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)

This morning Federal Government Ministers Mathias Cormann and Angus Taylor announced a $300 million Advancing Hydrogen Fund in terms of a panacea:

“From cheaper energy bills and job creation in regional Australia, to playing a role in reducing global emissions both at home and in countries that buy Australian produced hydrogen, the industry’s potential cannot be ignored,” said Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Taylor in the joint announcement.

The fund is designed to mesh with priorities under the national Hydrogen Strategy and as such will back areas that advance hydrogen production, developing export and domestic supply chains, establishing hydrogen hubs and building domestic demand for hydrogen.

Just a month ago, BloombergNEF released a report, Hydrogen Economy Outlook, which concluded that only a widespread global commitment to net zero emissions could generate the kind of investment — it calculated the need for US$150 billion in cumulative subsidies to 2030 — required to bring down the cost of producing hydrogen and make it competitive with other fuels.

Hydrogen is not a free kick

“Once you set a net zero target, and are serious about putting policies and measures in place to achieve that, then hydrogen becomes a necessary option,” Kobad Bavhnagri, Global Head of Industrial Decarbonisation at BNEF and lead author of the report, told pv magazine at the end of March.

“If you don’t have that clarity and that purpose,” Bhavnagri continued, “then actually there’s no need to do hydrogen and it won’t stand up.” A higher cost, less convenient energy source than fossil fuels such as coal, gas and oil, hydrogen only starts to make sense when the demand is created for a zero-emissions alternative.

Bhavnagri explained that development of hydrogen is a global task. It requires mass participation to achieve the economies of scale that will make hydrogen viable.

Based on fuel prices in March, the Hydrogen Economy Outlook estimated, for example, that if the electrolysers used to produce hydrogen from water (one method of hydrogen production that lends itself to using renewable energy to power the process of atom splitting) could be driven dramatically down in cost by demand and manufacturing efficiencies, renewable hydrogen could be produced for US$0.8 to US$1.6/kg by 2050. This was then equivalent to gas priced at US$6-12/MMBtu, making it competitive with natural gas.

Australia’s Federal Government has set the open-ended goal — dubbed ‘H2 under 2’ — of producing hydrogen for AU$2 a kilogram as part of its as yet unreleased but much anticipated Technology Investment Roadmap.

Its $300 million Advancing Hydrogen Fund is to be administered by the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC), which this morning welcomed the announcement of its amended mandate to make the $300 million available from its existing funds. 

“We are confident we can use our capital to help build investor confidence in the emerging hydrogen sector,” said CEFC CEO, Ian Learmonth.

It’s not easy staying green

This morning’s CEFC statement also emphasised that, “In line with the CEFC Act, projects seeking CEFC finance through the Advancing Hydrogen Fund are required to be commercial, draw on renewable energy, energy efficiency and/or low emissions technologies and contribute to emissions reduction.”

The CEFC says that from the allocated Advancing Hydrogen Fund it anticipates providing either debt or equity finance to eligible larger-scale commercial and industrial projects likely to require $10 million or more in CEFC capital, alongside finance raised from other sources.

CEFC identifies an early priority for funding to coincide with the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) $70 million Renewable Hydrogen Deployment Fund. 

This ARENA funding round opened on 15 April, and expressions of interest are currently set to close on 26 May. Outcomes are expected to be announced on 30 November this year.

“We see green hydrogen as offering the most credible pathway to decarbonisation for high emitting sectors and those which lack scaleable electrification options,” said CEFC’s Learmonth. CEFC identifies some of these sectors as manufacturing, heavy transport such as trucks and shipping, mining, processing of metals and production of chemicals.

Exports going nowhere: use it on shore

One clear point of departure between BNEF’s Hydrogen Economy Outlook and the stated ambitions of the Government Advancing Hydrogen Fund is in relation to hydrogen as an export industry for Australia.

Cormann describes the Fund as a “catalyst for the future growth of Australia’s hydrogen industry,” which has the potential to become “a major new export industry”. Taylor adds the commitment made in the National Hydrogen Strategy, launched in November last year, “to build Australia’s hydrogen industry into a global export industry by 2030”.

Bhavnagri, on the other hand, found in his BNEF report that, “the economics of exporting hydrogen by ship are very poor”.

He told pv magazine, “This narrative about Australia being able to export hydrogen is a bit misplaced … Hydrogen is not like natural gas; it’s far less dense and has a liquefaction temperature much lower than natural gas, so it’s just much harder to put on a ship in a liquefied state — it’s really expensive to do.”

He concluded that “Australia can be a hydrogen superpower by using it onshore and exporting value-added products.”

Both the Australian Government and BNEF champion the establishment of hydrogen hubs, with BNEF explaining the efficiencies that such developments could offer: hubs might include clusters of wind-and-solar-powered electrolysers, and large storage facilities to smooth and buffer hydrogen supply, served by networks of dedicated pipelines feeding hydrogen to co-located industrial customers. 

Renewable resource can make Australia’s hydrogen the cheapest

Writing in BNEF’s Hydrogen Economy Outlook, Bhavnagri notes: “Our analysis suggests that a delivered cost of green hydrogen of around US$2/kg in 2030 and US$1/kg in 2050” is achievable in China, India and Western Europe. Countries with the best renewable and hydrogen storage resources, such as Australia, could achieve 20-25% reductions on these costs.

But BNEF cautions that even at US$1/kg the use of hydrogen in place of fossil fuels is still likely to require a carbon price or other policy measures to make it the most attractive option: “This is because hydrogen must be manufactured, whereas natural gas, coal and oil need only to be extracted, so it is likely to always be a more expensive form of energy.”

Ultimately Bhavnagri is optimistic about the potential for hydrogen to help decarbonise the planet, and to open new opportunities for green manufacturing in Australia that could significantly boost employment opportunities.

Signs of hydrogen life

The Hydrogen Economy Outlook said investors keen to be involved in hydrogen projects should look out for evidence of seven key events that signal opportunity for green hydrogen to scale as needed to provide a viable alternative to fossil fuels, and act as an accelerator to decarbonisation . In order of importance, the first three indications are:

1. Legislation of net-zero climate targets
2. Harmonisation of international standards governing hydrogen use
3. Introduction of targets with investment mechanisms

We now have an investment mechanism, administered by a trusted body which has previously facilitated almost $28 billion worth of clean-energy projects in Australia since its inception in mid-2012, but this investment seems still untethered from Government political will and policy needed to reach net zero emissions within a timeframe that will help global citizens avoid the next looming threat to our lives. Prosperity assumes a healthy planet.

Schedule a call with us to see how Green Hydrogen can help take you further.

This article originally appeared on pv-magazine-usa.com, and has been republished with permission by pv magazine (www.pv-magazine.com and www.pv-magazine-usa.com).

The project includes the modification of two transport service stations to supply hydrogen.

Image: Griffith University

Chinese coal miner Baofeng Energy has announced the start of construction of what it claims will be the world’s largest solar-powered hydrogen plant, in the Ningxia Hui autonomous region of northwest China.

The RMB1.4 billion ($199 million) electrolysis project is intended to produce 160 million cubic meters of hydrogen per year plus 80 million cubic meters of oxygen. Baofeng said the use of solar electricity to power the facility would save 254,000 tons of coal consumption annually, leading to a 445,000-ton reduction in carbon emissions.

The project will feature two 10,000m³/hr electrolyzers powered by two 100 MW solar plants plus a 1,000kg/day hydrogenation station and two petrol stations will be converted to also supply natural gas and hydrogen for transport purposes. The solar panels will be installed over wolfberry and alfalfa crops which will generate extra revenue, according to Baofeng.

Work on the project started this month and is slated for completion this year, with hydrogen production to start next year.

Baofeng is also working on a coking co-generation plant to produce three million tons of coal-based coke per year, plus 1.2 billion cubic meters of hydrogen.

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This article originally appeared on pv-magazine-usa.com, and has been republished with permission by pv magazine (www.pv-magazine.com and www.pv-magazine-usa.com).